Autumn Budget 2025: Which Taxes Might Increase?

As the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, prepares to deliver the Autumn Budget on 26th November 2025, businesses and individuals are bracing for a number of potential UK tax changes.

While assurances were given earlier that no further tax rises would be introduced before the next general election, recent signals suggest increases across several areas are highly likely.

We outline the potential likelihood of 2025 Autumn Budget tax changes below.

Income Tax and National Insurance

Income tax rates are expected to rise to 22%, 42%, and 47%, potentially raising £6 billion, while National Insurance contributions could see a 2p reduction. Although measures may be framed as neutral for “working people” earning under £46,000, business owners, pensioners, landlords, and the self-employed should prepare for higher tax bills.

This looks less likely now given the potential reversal from the Chancellor – Income Tax might not going up.

Likelihood: 5/10

Fiscal Drag

Freezing tax allowances and thresholds until 2030 could result in more taxpayers being pushed into higher tax brackets due to inflation and wage increases. Adjustments to the basic personal allowance and the inheritance tax nil rate band may partially mitigate the impact, but fiscal drag will continue to generate additional revenue.

Likelihood: 9/10

Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

Significant increases to capital gains tax appear less likely, although measures to align rates more closely with income tax could be considered. Reintroducing indexation relief may accompany any changes, ensuring only real gains are taxed. Speculation over taxing primary residences has largely subsided.

Likelihood of increase: 3/10

National Insurance for Partnerships

Currently, partnerships do not pay the equivalent of employer NICs, creating lower effective tax rates on labour compared to companies. Introducing partnership NICs could raise an estimated £1.9 billion annually. This would align treatment with company labour costs and reduce economic distortions.

Likelihood: 9/10

Gambling, VAT and Property Taxes

• Gambling tax: A new gambling tax to fund social policy initiatives is likely
• VAT registration threshold: Could be reduced from £90,000 to £30,000.
• Fuel VAT: Temporary reductions may be considered to ease rising costs.
• Stamp Duty Land Tax: Reforms may encourage property movement.
• Council Tax: Could double for top bands (G and H) which could raise £4.4 billion.
• Mansion tax: Annual 1% tax on properties over £2 million remains a possibility.

Likelihood: Gambling tax 8/10; VAT threshold 6/10; fuel VAT 6/10; Stamp Duty reform 6/10; Council Tax 8/10; Mansion Tax 5/10

Pension and Inheritance Tax

Changes to pensions are expected to target the tax-free lump sum, potentially reducing it from £268,000 to £100,000.

Broader reforms to pension tax relief appear unlikely. Inheritance tax adjustments, such as extending exempt transfers from 7 to 10 years, could also be implemented.

Likelihood: Pension lump sum 9/10; broader pension relief 1/10; inheritance exemptions 7/10

New Emerging Taxes and Electric Vehicle Tax

Consultation may begin on a mileage-based tax for electric vehicles from 2028, reflecting the need to offset declining fuel duty revenues.

Exit taxes on individuals moving abroad could also be considered, while wealth taxes remain less likely due to practical implementation challenges.

Likelihood: EV mileage tax 9/10; Exit Tax 6/10; wealth taxes 4/10

Summary of Likelihood of Tax Increases

Key Autumn Budget 2025 Takeaways

The Autumn Budget 2025 is expected to bring wide-ranging implications for taxpayers and businesses alike. While some measures may be framed as targeted or neutral, most are likely to result in increased tax bills.

With numerous areas under review, preparation and careful planning will be essential in the months ahead, especially around estate planning for individuals and tax strategy for corporations.

Whether for individual estate planning purposes or for wider business considerations, get in touch today to speak with an expert.